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Question

Mathematics Question on Conditional Probability

The bag A'A' contains 55 white and 33 black balls while the bag B'B' contains 44 white and 77 black balls. One of the bags is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. What is the probability that the ball is white?

A

87176\frac{87}{176}

B

81172\frac{81}{172}

C

82179\frac{82}{179}

D

87179\frac{87}{179}

Answer

87176\frac{87}{176}

Explanation

Solution

Let E1E_1 be the event that bag AA is chosen, E2E_2 be the event that bag BB is chosen and AA be the event that white ball is drawn Note that E1E_1 and E2E_2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Since one of the bag is chosen at random, P(E1)=12P\left(E_{1}\right) = \frac{1}{2}, P(E2)=12P\left(E_{2} \right) = \frac{1}{2} P(AE1)=P\left(A|E_{1}\right) = probability of drawing a white ball from bag A=58A =\frac{5}{8} P(AE2)=P\left(A|E_{2}\right) = probability of drawing a white ball from bag B=411B = \frac{4}{11} By using law of total probability, we get P(A)=P(E1)P(AE1)+P(E2)P(AE2)P\left(A\right) = P\left(E_{1}\right) P\left(A|E_{1}\right) + P\left(E_{2}\right) P\left(A|E_{2}\right) =1258+12411= \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{5}{8}+\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{4}{11} =12(58+411)= \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{5}{8}+\frac{4}{11}\right) =128788=87176= \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{87}{88} = \frac{87}{176}