Question

In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines $A$, $B$ and $C$ manufacture respectively $25\%$, $35\%$ and $40\%$ of the bolts. Of their output $5\%$, $4\%$ and $2\%$ are respectively defective bolts. $A$ bolt is drawn at random from the total production and is found to be defective. Find the probability that it is manufactured by machine $B$.

• A. $\frac{23}{70}$
• B. $\frac{28}{69}$
• C. $\frac{25}{69}$
• D. $\frac{27}{70}$

Answer 1

Answer: (B)

$\frac{28}{69}$

Answer 2

Let $E_1$, $E_2$, $E_3$ and $A'$ be the events defined as follows : $E_1 =$ bolt is manufactured by machine $A$ $E_2 =$ bolt is manufactured by machine $B$ $E_3 =$ bolt is manufactured by machine $C$ $A' =$ bolt is defective. $\therefore P\left(E_{1}\right) = \frac{25}{100} = \frac{1}{4}$, $P\left(E_{2}\right) = \frac{35}{100} = \frac{7}{20}$ $P\left(E_{3}\right) = \frac{40}{100} = \frac{2}{5}$ $P\left(A'|E_{1}\right) = \frac{5}{100} = \frac{1}{20}$, $P\left(A'|E_{2}\right) =\frac{4}{100} = \frac{1}{25}$ $P\left(A'|E_{3}\right) =\frac{2}{100} = \frac{1}{50}$ We want to find $P(E_2|A')$ By Bayes' Theorem, $P\left(E_{2}|A'\right) = \frac{P\left(E_{2}\right)\cdot P\left(A' |E_{2}\right)}{P \left(E_{1}\right)P\left(A'|E_{1}\right) + P\left(E_{2}\right)P\left(A'|E_{2}\right)+ P\left(E_{3}\right)P\left(A'|E_{3}\right)}$ $=\frac{\frac{7}{2}\times\frac{1}{25}}{\frac{1}{4}\times \frac{1}{20}+\frac{7}{20}\times \frac{1}{25}+\frac{2}{5}\times \frac{1}{50}}$ $= \frac{\frac{7}{25}}{\frac{1}{4}+\frac{7}{25}+\frac{4}{25}}$ $= \frac{7}{25}\times \frac{100}{69} = \frac{28}{69}$