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Question

Mathematics Question on Bayes' Theorem

In a certain town, 60%60\% of the families own a car, 30%30\%own a house and 20%20\% own both a car and a house. If a family is randomly chosen, what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house but not both ?

A

0.5

B

0.7

C

0.1

D

0.9

Answer

0.5

Explanation

Solution

Let AA be the set of families who own a car and BB
be the set of families who own a house.
Then, P(A)=60%,P(B)=30%P(A)=60 \%, P(B)=30 \%
and P(AB)=20%P(A \cap B)=20 \%
Now, P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) =P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)
=60+3020=70%=60+30-20=70 \%
Now, families who owns a car or a house but not both =AΔB=A \Delta B
P(AΔB)=P(AB)P(AB)\Rightarrow P(A \Delta B) =P(A \cup B)-P(A \cap B)
=7020=50%=0.5=70-20=50 \%=0.5