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Question

Mathematics Question on Bayes' Theorem

An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of four shots at any plane moving away from it. The probabilities of hitting the plane at the 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd and 4 th shots are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. What is the probability that at least one shot hits the plane?

A

0.6976

B

0.3024

C

0.72

D

0.6431

Answer

0.6976

Explanation

Solution

Probability that at least one shot hits the plane =1P=1-P (none of the shot hits the plane) =10.60.7×0.8×0.9=1-0.60.7\times 0.8\times 0.9 =10.3024=1-0.3024 =0.6976=0.6976