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Question: A candidate takes 4 tests in succession. The probability that he passes first test is p. And the pro...

A candidate takes 4 tests in succession. The probability that he passes first test is p. And the probability that he passes any successive tests is p or p2\frac { \mathrm { p } } { 2 } according as he passes or fails in the previous test. He will be qualified only when he passes atleast 3 tests. Then the chance that he will be qualified.

A

B

C

D

(1-p3)

Answer

Explanation

Solution

If p stands for pass and F stands for Fail.

Then required ways, are FPPP, PFPP, PPFP, PPPF, PPPP.

Required probability = (1 – p) p2\frac { \mathrm { p } } { 2 } x p x p + p x (1 – p) x p + p. p(1 – p) p2\frac { \mathrm { p } } { 2 } + p.p.p.(1 – p) + p4

= (1 – p) + p3 (1 – p) + p4.