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Question

Mathematics Question on Bayes' Theorem

A biased coin with probability p, $0

A

44564

B

44595

C

44597

D

44625

Answer

44564

Explanation

Solution

Let q=1p.q=1-p . Since, head appears first time in an even throw 2 or 4 or 6.6 \ldots . 25=qp+q3p+q5p+ \therefore \frac{2}{5}=q p+q^{3} p+q^{5} p+\ldots 25=qp1q2\Rightarrow \frac{2}{5}=\frac{q p}{1-q^{2}} 25=(1p)p1(1p)2\Rightarrow \frac{2}{5}=\frac{(1-p) p}{1-(1-p)^{2}} 25=1p2p\Rightarrow \frac{2}{5}=\frac{1-p}{2-p} 42p=55p\Rightarrow 4-2 p=5-5 p 3p=1\Rightarrow 3 p=1 p=13\Rightarrow p=\frac{1}{3}