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Question

Mathematics Question on Conditional Probability

A bag contains 1212 white pearls and 1818 black pearls. Two pearls are drawn in succession without replacement. Find the probability that the first pearl is white and the second is black.

A

32145\frac{32}{145}

B

28143\frac{28}{143}

C

36145\frac{36}{145}

D

36143\frac{36}{143}

Answer

36145\frac{36}{145}

Explanation

Solution

Let AA and BB be the events of getting a white pearl in the first draw and a black pearl in the second draw. Now P(A)=PP(A) = P(getting a white pearl in the first draw) =1230=25=\frac{12}{30} = \frac{2}{5} When second pearl is drawn without replacement, the probability that the second pearl is black is the conditional probability of the event BB occurring when AA has already occurred. P(BA)=1829\therefore P(B|A) = \frac{18}{29} By multiplication rule of probability, we have P(AB)=P(A).P(BA)=25×1829P(A\cap B) = P(A).P(B|A)=\frac{2}{5} \times \frac{18}{29} =36145= \frac{36}{145}